Yesterday we wrote about one 48x spin that flipped castle roulette's day. This morning the castle line on the analytics page did it again: it spent the night close to zero, then climbed about $125,000 in three hours. This time there was no 48x hit behind it. It was a player betting tens of thousands a spin on the two safest coins on the wheel.
It isn't the first time. The first jump on that chart, on the afternoon of September 23, was SpaceRader03: +$100,128 in 33 minutes. The line then slid most of the way back. At 07:00 this morning it read −$5,461, so everyone else was already about $105,000 down, and SpaceRader03's win was the only thing keeping the line near zero.
Then it got worse before it got better. Between 08:28 and 08:37 UTC two other high rollers lost about $60,000 between them on castle (more on them below). By the minute, the castle line bottomed out at −$63,239 at 08:42. That's the moment castlewinner04 placed their first bet.
2x and 4x, $20,000 at a time
Our bet records go back to 10:19 UTC yesterday, and there's nothing from castlewinner04 in them before 08:42:16 UTC today. Their first spin was $49,900: $35,000 on 2x and $14,900 on 4x. The 2x landed, for +$20,100 (round 985116, Bet 21062290 Bet 21062313).
That set the pattern for the hour. Of the money we can tie to a coin, 96% went on 2x or 4x, the two coins that land most often. Across the 2,870 castle rounds we logged in the last 24 hours, the 2x came up 51% of the time and the 4x 25%. Take the bet they placed at 08:43 (Bet 21062404 Bet 21062418) and again at 09:18 (Bet 21065950 Bet 21065953): $20,000 on 2x and $10,000 on 4x. Either coin pays back $40,000, so it wins $10,000 about three spins in four and loses all $30,000 on the fourth.
Every so often they tried something else. Four times they spread $4,000 to $5,250 across 4x and the long-shot coins, about $1,000 on each. The 2x came up all four times.
Up $60,000, down $24,784, in twenty minutes
The first quarter of an hour went well. After nine spins they were +$60,100. Then they switched mostly to 2x on its own, $10,000 to $35,000 at a time. In the next seven spins the 2x came up twice. At 08:53 a $35,000 bet on 2x (Bet 21063511) lost to 8x, and they were back to +$99.
The next bet was their biggest on a single coin: $49,982 on 2x (Bet 21063703). It won. The next one, $24,965 on 2x (Bet 21063857), lost, and three more spins took them to 09:01:48 and a $49,900 split, half on 2x and half on 4x (Bet 21064307 Bet 21064310). The wheel stopped on 16x. That was the low point: −$24,784, twenty minutes after they started.
Down $24,784 at 09:02. Thirty-eight minutes later, up $148,698.
The climb, and the 8x
They didn't slow down. The very next spin was $50,001, split evenly (Bet 21064539 Bet 21064540), and 4x landed: +$50,001. Over the next quarter of an hour, mostly with $20,000 to $50,000 2x-and-4x splits, they climbed to +$82,968 at 09:18. Then came five losing spins in a row: two of the long-shot spreads, $20,000 on 2x that landed 4x (Bet 21066209), $12,404 on 2x that landed 24x (Bet 21066279), and a $24,900 split that landed 16x (Bet 21066664 Bet 21066678). They cost $65,304 and left them at +$17,664 at 09:25.
From 09:27 they won nine of the next twelve spins, and the other three cost them $283 between them, reaching +$101,354. Then they changed the bet one more time: $25,000 on 2x, $12,500 on 4x and $12,121 on 8x, $49,621 in all. If 2x or 4x lands it makes $379. The 8x pays $96,964. Only 16x, 24x and 48x lose.
They placed it three spins running. 2x, 2x, then at 09:40:36, 8x: +$47,344 (Bet 21068347 Bet 21068348 Bet 21068349), and a peak of +$148,698.
| Bet placed (UTC) | Result | Staked | Round P&L | Running total | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:42:16 | 2x | $49,900 | +$20,100 | +$20,100 | 21062290 21062313 |
| 08:43–08:48 | 8 spins* | $165,000 | +$40,000 | +$60,100 | — |
| 08:49–08:53 | 7 spins, 2 won | $110,002 | −$60,001 | +$99 | — |
| 08:55:20 | 2x | $49,982 | +$49,982 | +$50,081 | 21063703 |
| 08:57–09:00 | 4 spins* | $94,964 | −$24,965 | +$25,116 | — |
| 09:01:48 | 16x | $49,900 | −$49,900 | −$24,784 | 21064307 21064310 |
| 09:04:12 | 4x | $50,001 | +$50,001 | +$25,217 | 21064539 21064540 |
| 09:04–09:18 | 16 spins, 10 won | $412,253 | +$57,751 | +$82,968 | — |
| 09:19–09:24 | 5 spins, none won | $65,304 | −$65,304 | +$17,664 | — |
| 09:27–09:39 | 12 spins, 9 won | $394,632 | +$83,690 | +$101,354 | — |
| 09:40:23 | 8x | $49,621 | +$47,344 | +$148,698 | 21068347 21068348 21068349 |
| 09:43:22 | 8x | $22,458 | −$22,458 | +$126,240 | 21068545 21068546 |
* Includes five spins that are missing from the castle bet feed and are filled in from Duel's high-roller feed. See "How we checked it".
One more spin, then nothing
Three minutes after the peak they put $11,000 on 2x, $11,000 on 4x and $458 on 48x. It landed 8x again: −$22,458 (Bet 21068545 Bet 21068546). That was their last castle bet in our records, which run to 10:34 UTC. They finished +$126,240 on $1,514,015 wagered, a return of about 8% in an hour.
Of the 58 spins, 29 made money, 24 lost and 5 broke even. The wheel was a little kind to them. The 4x, the coin they leaned on in almost every split, came up 19 times in the 53 spins with a result in our round log, against the one in four you'd expect. The 2x came up 23 times, slightly under half.
Why the chart shows more than they won
The analytics chart counts castlewinner04 at about +$181,000, around $55,000 more than they really made. Two things are missing from the castle feed we record:
- Four rounds, 985122 to 985125 (08:45 to 08:47 UTC), never arrived: no bets and no results, for anyone. Duel's separate high-roller feed shows castlewinner04 bet $75,000 across them and came out $30,000 down.
- Round 985145 at 08:57 has no result in our round log, so its bets are still "pending" and the chart leaves them out. The high-roller feed shows castlewinner04's $24,965 bet on 2x there lost (Bet 21063857).
With those losses counted, castle's 24-hour number at 10:00 would be nearer +$65,000 than +$120,000. We can't say what other players did in the four missing rounds.
The other names on the chart
Take out SpaceRader03 and castlewinner04 and castle players lost $161,545 over the same 24 hours. A few big bets did most of that:
- +$100.1kSpaceRader03
28 spins between 14:02 and 14:35 UTC on Sept 23, $357,843 wagered. A $19,994 bet on 4x at 14:03 paid +$59,982 (Bet 20965038). They peaked at +$171,982 at 14:23, then lost all seven spins after that.
- −$35.1kisshdh
Six spins from 08:28 to 08:33 UTC today, almost all on 2x. Won the first, then lost five in a row, the last a $15,070 bet on 2x that landed on 16x (Bet 21061403).
- −$24.9khshdjowuwo
Two spins at 08:36, each about $24,947 split evenly between 2x and 4x. The first landed 2x and broke even (Bet 21061634 Bet 21061647), then 8x took the lot (Bet 21061697 Bet 21061698).
- −$49.9krouletter1 and winspin010
Between 20:40 and 20:54 UTC on Sept 23 both went up $10,000 or more and finished about $25,000 down each. That is most of the big drop on the chart at 21:00.
The 48x-coin morning of September 23 is still in our earlier report. SpaceRader03's afternoon drops out of the 24-hour window by 15:00 UTC today, so unless someone else hits big, expect the castle line to lose about $100,000 of its lead.