If you have to pick your first throw, most people on Duel pick paper. Of 1,204 opening throws we recorded, 471 were paper, 374 scissors and only 359 rock. If throws were random, each would be about 401.
That makes scissors the best opening against the average Duel player: it beats the most common throw and loses only to the least common one.
What people do after a round
After winning a round, players threw the same thing again 37% of the time, more than any other choice. Why change what works?
After losing, the most common move (38%) was to switch to whatever beats the throw that just beat them. Lose with rock to paper, and next time you're likely to see scissors. If you just won with paper, expect scissors, and throw rock.
After a tie, people were close to random. There were plenty to learn from: 1,149 of the 3,540 rounds, almost a third, were ties.
Just won with paper? Your opponent is probably about to throw scissors.
The two players who run the room
Two names were in almost two-thirds of the matches. X9X9 created 204 matches and waited for opponents to join. i_keep_trying created 189 and joined 14 more. Between them they played 393 of the 602.
| Player | Matches | Won | Lost | Favourite throw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| X9X9 | 204 | 96 | 104 | Rock, 35% |
| i_keep_trying | 203 | 104 | 90 | Paper, 43% |
| justmehaha | 125 | 63 | 53 | — |
| Baljit | 67 | 31 | 33 | — |
X9X9 is close to random: 414 rock, 389 scissors and 380 paper across 1,183 throws, and a losing record of 96–104. i_keep_trying leans hard on paper, 516 of 1,214 throws, and still has the best record of the regulars at 104–90. When the two met each other, i_keep_trying won 8 of 14.
X9X9's most frequent opponent was Baljit, who joined their games 49 times.
Fifteen rounds
Most matches take four to seven rounds. The longest one we recorded started at 15:01 UTC on September 23, i_keep_trying against rikka556, and went 15 rounds. Ten of them were ties, five of those on scissors against scissors. rikka556 won it 3–2.