At 00:36:19 UTC on September 23, player #5624139 lost an eighth straight crash bet. That put them $68,506 down on crash since their first bet, 24 hours earlier. Thirty-nine minutes later they were $38,533 up.
A note on the name: this player's username contains a slur, so we're using their public Duel player ID instead. Everything else here is exactly as it appears in the bet feed.
One plan: wait for 6x
Most crash players take their money at 1.3x or 2x. This player didn't. All 43 of their wins were cashed out at 4x or higher, 20 of them at exactly 6x, and 28 between 5.5x and 6.3x. They never took anything smaller.
About one crash round in six reaches 6x (16.7% of the 5,119 rounds we logged in these two days). So their plan meant losing roughly five bets for every win, and needing each win to pay for the five losses before it. Over all 249 bets they won 43 times, or 17.3%. That's almost exactly what the odds would give you. This wasn't a skill edge. It was a coin with a one-in-six chance, flipped very hard.
Up, down, up, and a long way down
The first night went badly. Between 02:38 and 03:24 UTC on September 22 they placed 31 bets of up to $1,500 and won one of them, ending the night −$15,730.
They came back at 10:35 and lost two more, down to −$18,607. Then four of the next seven bets hit 6x or 7x, and in five minutes they were +$8,168. A slow afternoon of smaller bets took that to a peak of +$19,419 at 19:37.
Then the stakes went up and the wins stopped coming. From 19:36 to 21:00 they bet $96,107 across 63 rounds and won 7 of them, fewer than the ten or so the odds would give: −$37,142 in under an hour and a half. At 22:51 they came back with $2,000 to $4,000 bets and lost another $19,939 in five minutes.
At 00:33 on September 23 came the worst stretch of all: eight bets between $2,000 and $6,000, no wins, $29,932 gone in under three minutes. Two of those rounds reached 3.68x and 5.02x, so close to their target but short of it.
Eight straight losses, −$68,506. Then they came back 29 minutes later and raised the stakes.
Ten minutes, $107,039
At 01:05:36 they came back with the biggest bets of their two days: $4,960 twice, then $6,800, $7,000 and $8,000. In the next ten minutes they placed 20 bets totalling $112,139. Six of them hit.
| Bet placed (UTC) | Staked | Cashed at | Round went to | Profit | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:36:19 | $2,000 | — | 1.19x | −$2,000 | −$68,506 |
| 01:05:36 | $4,960 | 6x | 9.43x | +$24,800 | −$43,707 |
| 01:06–01:07 | 3 bets, $18,759 | — | 1.30–2.54x | −$18,759 | −$62,466 |
| 01:07:24 | $8,000 | 5.99x | 17.06x | +$39,921 | −$22,545 |
| 01:08–01:10 | 6 bets, $35,920 | — | 1.34–6.28x | −$35,920 | −$58,465 |
| 01:11:07 | $8,000 | 5.95x | 17.16x | +$39,599 | −$18,866 |
| 01:11:57 | $4,600 | — | 1.69x | −$4,600 | −$23,466 |
| 01:12:20 | $5,000 | 6x | 6.24x | +$25,000 | +$1,534 |
| 01:12–01:13 | 2 bets, $11,000 | — | 1.13–2.47x | −$11,000 | −$9,466 |
| 01:13:40 | $6,000 | 6.25x | 28.38x | +$31,500 | +$22,034 |
| 01:14 | 2 bets, $5,500 | — | 1.14–4.59x | −$5,500 | +$16,534 |
| 01:15:33 | $4,400 | 6x | 15.22x | +$21,999 | +$38,533 |
Six wins in 20 bets, when the odds would give you about three. That extra luck came at their biggest stakes, and it turned a $68,506 hole into a $38,533 profit. One losing round, at 01:10, reached 6.28x and that bet still lost. And on five of the six wins the round kept going well past their exit, to 9x, 17x, 17x, 28x and 15x. They took about 6x every time anyway.
After 01:15 they stopped. They didn't place another crash bet for almost twelve hours.
How it finished
When they came back on September 23 the stakes were small again: $35 to $300 in the early afternoon, and up to $1,500 in the evening. An evening run from 18:04 to 18:25 dipped to +$28,783 before three late wins, the last $1,200 at 5.37x, took them to a final +$42,427.
That's a 12.4% return on $341,072 wagered, and it matters beyond this one player. Crash players as a whole finished the two days +$64,853. Take out this player and chickenchicken6969's single $50,000 bet at 2x, and everyone else was $27,574 down.