Round 1326945 opened for bets at 23:32:53 UTC. Eight players joined in the next seven seconds with stakes from four cents to $35.53. Two minutes later the multiplier finally stopped at 2,091.83x.
Nobody was still on it. The biggest stake, DownABagMF's $35.53, was cashed at 1.38x for a profit of $13.50. The best exit of the round was ufohackers at exactly 2x, on a four-cent bet. The round paid out $62.26 in total. Players left it +$16.45 up.
If all eight had simply held on, that $45.81 would have come back as about $95,800. Nobody does that, and the rest of the data shows why that isn't really a mistake.
| Player | Staked | Cashed out at | Paid | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DownABagMF | $35.53 | 1.38x | $49.03 | +$13.50 |
| sploogenstein | $6.90 | 1.33x | $9.18 | +$2.28 |
| Funkymule93 | $2.54 | 1.10x | $2.79 | +$0.25 |
| BertPook | $0.50 | 1.58x | $0.79 | +$0.29 |
| waydagambler | $0.18 | 1.02x | $0.18 | +<$0.01 |
| JesusIsKing3927 | $0.08 | 1.95x | $0.16 | +$0.08 |
| ufohackers | $0.04 | 2.00x | $0.08 | +$0.04 |
| OFFaBIT | $0.04 | 1.16x | $0.05 | +$0.01 |
Three rounds over 1,000x, $61 on them in total
We recorded 5,119 crash rounds between midnight UTC on September 22 and 18:45 UTC on September 23. Three of them went past 1,000x, and none of them had much money on it:
- 2,091.83x23:34 UTC, Sept 22
8 bets, $45.81 staked. Best cash-out: 2x.
- 1,628.39x13:54 UTC, Sept 22
5 bets, $2.77 staked. Best cash-out: 3.14x, by pqlegrec222 on $2.50.
- 1,557.09x17:44 UTC, Sept 22
5 bets, $12.53 staked. Ountap rode $4.75 to 21.15x for about $100, the best result of the three.
Go down to every round that reached 100x and the picture is the same. There were 52 of them, about one round in a hundred. Players put $3,733 on those rounds and took back $19,773, but only one person in the whole two days actually cashed out at 100x or above: KSAM, who turned $0.71 into $71.10 at 18:21 on September 22. That round went on to 198x.
One round in ten reached 10x. Only one cash-out in two hundred did.
Where people actually get off
There were 14,557 winning cash-outs in the two days. The middle one was at 1.33x, and 57% of them were under 1.5x. Weight it by money instead of by bet and the middle cash-out is exactly 2x: half of all the money that won was taken off at 2x or lower.
Compare that with how far the rounds themselves went. Of the 5,119 rounds, 49% reached 2x, 20% reached 5x and 10% reached 10x. But only 0.5% of cash-outs were at 10x or more. The big multipliers happen all the time. People just aren't on them.
That's not players being timid. Every multiplier in crash carries roughly the same house edge, so holding for 2,000x isn't a better bet than taking 1.3x. It just swaps a lot of small wins for a very rare big one. A player who always waits for 100x will, on this sample, win about once in a hundred rounds.
The $50,000 bet on a 2x
The money was never on the long shots anyway. The biggest single crash bet we recorded in the two days came at 05:52 UTC on September 22, when chickenchicken6969 put $50,000 on round 1324633 and cashed out at 2x for +$50,000. The round kept going to 7.83x.
It's the only crash bet we have from them in the whole period. That one bet was about 6.5% of the $773,000 wagered on crash across the two days, and more than 13 times everything wagered on all 52 rounds that reached 100x.